On Monday, Rwandans will head to the polls in an election that is expected to extend President Paul Kagame’s long tenure. Kagame, who has been in power for nearly three decades, faces minimal opposition.
During his campaign rallies, Kagame has drawn large crowds of supporters, suggesting a likely victory as he seeks a fourth term. His opponents, Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana, have struggled to attract significant support.
In the 2017 election, Kagame faced the same opponents and secured almost 99% of the vote. Observers anticipate a similar outcome this time, given the lack of substantial opposition.
Kagame, 66, came to power as the leader of rebels who ended the 1994 genocide. He served as vice president and de facto leader from 1994 to 2000, before becoming president. Since then, he has governed Rwanda with a strong hand, showing little tolerance for political dissent.
The election is occurring amid heightened insecurity in Africa’s Great Lakes region, particularly due to the conflict involving the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo. U.N. experts recently reported that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan forces are fighting alongside M23, a group that the U.S. has said is supported by Rwanda. Rwanda, in turn, accuses Congo’s military of recruiting fighters responsible for the 1994 genocide.
Campaign rallies will conclude today Saturday, with the vote set to extend Kagame’s presidency by another five years. Approximately 9.5 million Rwandans are registered to vote, according to electoral authorities.
Human rights organizations have raised concerns over the repression of political opposition in Rwanda. Amnesty International recently highlighted issues such as threats, arbitrary detentions, prosecutions on false charges, killings, and enforced disappearances targeting the opposition.
Amnesty’s statement noted that the suppression of dissent limits the space for debate in Rwanda. Since the 2017 election, at least two members of the opposition FDU-Inkingi party have disappeared, and there have been other mysterious deaths and killings.
Opposition figure Victoire Ingabire, who is barred from running due to a previous criminal conviction, was denied legal rehabilitation earlier this year. Another critic, Diane Rwigara, was blocked from running in the past for allegedly failing to show sufficient support. Both Ingabire and Rwigara accuse Kagame of obstructing their presidential bids.
Human Rights Watch has also urged Rwandan authorities to allow free expression and voting.
Kagame has been praised for Rwanda’s economic growth since the genocide, with the country emerging as a regional financial hub. However, his government faces accusations of media suppression, assassinating opponents, and supporting rebel groups in Congo.
During a recent campaign rally, Kagame defended the necessity of elections, despite criticisms that the outcome is predictable. He emphasized that democracy allows people to choose what they believe is best for them.
Supporters credit Kagame’s government with reducing poverty, expanding medical insurance, and transforming the capital, Kigali. Many Rwandans view his leadership as a safeguard against past political turmoil.
Eric Ndushabandi, a political science professor at the University of Rwanda, noted that while Kagame has critics, many Rwandans believe his leadership prevents a recurrence of the genocide. Kagame’s rallies have drawn supporters from across the country, though there have been incidents like a deadly stampede in June.
“Every country has its best leader,” said Johnson Bugirinfura, a farmer from Musanze. “Right now, it’s only Kagame Rwandans need.”
One critic, who wished to remain anonymous to avoid reprisals, expressed a desire for change but doubted it was possible, reflecting the constrained political environment in Rwanda.
